Matty Briggs runs through all the weekend's statistics and pointers and selects a 2/1 Value Bet in TEAMtalk's new-look Numbers Game.
It has paid to follow the money in recent weeks with the Steamers providing several winners and once again Sky Bet pointed us in the right direction. In-form Sunderland were heavily backed to win at Stoke and delivered with a 1-0 success at The Britannia. There was not much else to crow about from last week with the Value Bet and the Banker both turned over. The Hot-Shots did provide a winner though as Barnsley's Andy Gray (12/5) netted and Nikola Zigic didn't feature so all stakes were returned. This week we have marked West Brom up as the 2/1 Value Bet and Blackpool as the 8/11 Banker.
- VALUE BET -
West Brom to win at Wolves at 2/1 (Sun).
West Brom's troubles at The Hawthorns have been well documented, but away from home they have been an entirely different animal. Roy Hodgson's men, without the pressure of the Albion faithful, play with more freedom and they have won three of their last five away games - beating Blackburn, Newcastle and Stoke and they are fancied to see off neighbours Wolves at Molineux. Nobody has a better recent away record than the Baggies and with Wolves so fragile at home - they have lost four of their last five - Albion look like a value pick. Shane Long and Graham Dorrans could both return against Wolves, who only managed to turn around last week's game with QPR after Djibril Cisse was sent-off. Mick McCarthy's men were 2-1 winners against the R's but they were far from convincing and if it had stayed 11 v 11 it could well have been a cricket score. They could also be without midfielders Jamie O'Hara, Dave Edwards and Michael Kightly, while Karl Henry is banned and Emmanuel Frimpong sidelined for the season.
- WHO'S HOT -
Chelsea (5/4) are five games unbeaten in the Premier League and travel to Everton 9/4.
Sunderland (12/5) have won their last three in the Premier League and host Arsenal (11/10).
Charlton (5/6) are five games unbeaten in League One and travel to Chesterfield (100/30).
Huddersfield (12/5) are nine games unbeaten in League One and travel to Orient (11/10).
Brighton (11/4) are five games unbeaten in the Championship and travel to Leeds (evens).
Blackpool (8/11) have won their last three Championship games and host Portsmouth (11/4) (5.20pm).
Torquay (13/8) have won their last five League Two games and host Shrewsbury (13/8).
Shrewsbury (13/8) have won their last four League Two games and travel to Torquay (13/8).
- WHO'S NOT -
Stoke (11/4) have lost their last three in the Premier League and travel to Fulham (evens).
Wigan (11/4) are nine games without a Premier League win and travel to Bolton (evens).
Nottingham Forest (6/5) have lost their last three in the Championship and host Watford (11/5).
Peterborough (13/5) are six games without a win in the Championship and host West Ham (evens).
Tranmere (5/4) are seven games without a win in League One and host PNE (21/10).
Gillingham (8/5) have lost their last three League Two games and travel to Burton (8/5).
Rotherham (3/1) have lost their last three League Two games and travel to Southend (evens) (Fri).
- BOGEY TEAMS -
Man Utd (5/6) have won seven of the last eight at home v Liverpool (100/30) (12.45pm).
QPR (2/1) have won just one of the last 12 meetings with Blackburn (11/8) in all competitions.
Bolton (evens) have lost none of the last eight matches in all competitions v Wigan (11/4).
Everton (9/4) have won two of the last 22 Premier League games v Chelsea (5/4).
Swansea (5/6) have won six and lost none of their last eight home matches v Norwich (7/2).
Spurs (4/9) have won only two of their last 10 games v Newcastle (6/1).
West Brom (2/1) have lost only two of the last 12 meetings in all competitions v Wolves (11/8).
Crystal Palace (10/11) have won six of seven home games v Doncaster (3/1).
Brighton (evens) have won just once in 16 trips to Leeds (11/4).
Portsmouth (7/2) have won six of the last seven meetings v Blackpool (8/11).
Sheff Weds (evens) have never won at Exeter (13/5) in five trips.
Bournemouth (11/8) have won just one of last 14 at Hartlepool (15/8).
Leyton Orient (12/5) have only won one of last seven at home to Huddersfield (11/10).
Rochdale (13/8) have won five of last six at home to Notts C (13/8).
Tranmere (5/4) have won five of last six at home to PNE (21/10).
Torquay (13/8) have won six of last seven at home v Shrewsbury (13/8).
- BANKER -
Blackpool to beat Portsmouth at 8/11.
Blackpool are a team on the up and boss Ian Holloway's strength in depth is starting to come into its own. The Tangerines have won nine of their 14 home games and four of their last five and in Matty Phillips and Kevin Phillips they have strikers in red-hot form. Portsmouth have lost nine of their 15 games on their travels and three of their last five have ended in defeat and a trip to the Golden Mile should prove another fruitless jaunt.
- HOT-SHOTS -
Swansea's Danny Graham has 10 goals and has netted four in his last three league games v Norwich and is 11/8 to net again.
Brighton's Will Buckley has four goals in his last six (five if you count deflected goal v Newcastle) and is 11/4 to net at Leeds.
Burnley's Jay Rodriguez has five goals in his last five and is 5/2 to score at Southampton.
Crawley's Sanchez Watt scored twice in midweek and is 7/4 to bag against Aldershot.
Ipswich's Jay Emmanuel-Thomas has scored three in his last two games and is 2/1 to net v Middlesbrough.
- TREATMENT ROOM -
Reading to beat Coventry at 1/2.
Coventry continue to be without at least six players for their trip to promotion-chasing Reading. Hermann Hreidarsson (shoulder), Chris Hussey (ankle), Nathan Cameron (knee) and Cyrus Christie (knock) as well as midfielder Conor Thomas (abductor) and striker Cody McDonald (knee) could all miss out again.
Hull to beat Bristol City at 8/11.
Bristol City will be without the suspended James Wilson and Yannick Bolasie, while Lewin Nyatanga is struggling through an ankle injury. Louis Carey (calf) will also miss out and Neil Kilkenny (hamstring) is also sidelined.
Bristol Rovers to beat Morecambe at 11/10.
Bristol Rovers will have striker Matt Harrold, defender Danny Woodards and forward pairing Joe Anyinsah and Mustapha Carayol available again.
- FAMOUS LAST WORDS -
Ipswich to beat Middlesbrough at 7/5.
After the midweek cup defeat to Sunderland, Tony Mowbray said: "The overriding emotion is disappointment, of course. It's a game we haven't won and somewhere along the line, statistics will be used to say we haven't won since Boxing Day, as I am hearing a lot at the moment. It's little consolation. The bottom line is when you go to extra-time, you have got to come out winning the football match, not having any consolation that you might have done okay in the game. We didn't win it and Sunderland found a way to win it tonight."
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You can follow Matty on Twitter at @mattpbriggs.