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Number Game

Numbers Game: Plump for capital gains

Friday 26th October 2012 10:39

Chelsea: Fancied to see off Man Utd

Chelsea: Fancied to see off Man Utd

Siding with Chelsea (6/4), Spurs (17/20) and Stevenage (7/4) is the way forward, according to this weekend's betting blog, the Numbers Game.

Close but no cigar, was the story of last weekend as @MattPBriggs' 3/1 DNB West Brom tip bit the dust. The Baggies were 1-0 up and Man City were down to 10 men but Edin Dzeko arrived from the bench to sink the Value Bet with two late goals. It was a pretty miserable weekend all round, but Chesterfield did beat Exeter at 5/2 to give me something to cling on to.

Chelsea (Value Bet) and Tottenham (Banker) are both fancied to get me back on track this weekend, while Stevenage (Value Bet) look a steal of a price at 7/4 to sink Swindon in League One. There are also some decent goalscorer bets to get your teeth into and 13/8, 9/4, 2/1 and 7/5 shots to look at for your football accumulators.


value-bet
  • VALUE BET -

    Chelsea to beat Man Utd at 6/4 & Stevenage to beat Swindon at 7/4.


    Chelsea have a 100% home record with four home wins and they looked like the real deal in the 4-2 win at Tottenham last weekend. Juan Mata inspired the Blues to their fourth straight league win and they can capitalise on United's shaky defence which has conceded 11 goals already this season.
    League One promotion contenders Stevenage look a great price at home to Swindon. At 7/4 Gary Smith's men look terrific value, after winning four of their last five games, against the up-and-down Robins.
steamer
  • STEAMERS -

    Paddy Power think it's no wonder this week many punters have latched onto Stoke City. Since their opening show we've seen plenty of support for them into their current price of evens. Despite the fact they were beaten last week in Old Trafford, their home record is very strong, having drawn with Arsenal and Man City and comfortably disposing of Swansea. They haven't been beaten at home in the Premier League since February of this year and many punters feel this week will not be the week that changes, despite the fact that loss was to this weekend's opponents.Bet365 say Super Sunday looks competitive and report seeing three-way action on both Chelsea v Man Utd and Everton v Liverpool, whilst I think Newcastle will go off shorter than evens for the Baggies visit to Tyneside.

    Sky Bet report Everton have been backed to overcome their Merseyside rivals Liverpool at Goodison Park this weekend. The Toffees were 7/4 earlier in the week but have now wrestled favouritism from Liverpool and are currently 8/5.
    Championship league leaders Leicester are now as short as 1/2 to defeat Crystal Palace having opened up at 8/13. Leicester are proving hugely popular every week now and the departure of Dougie Freedman from the Selhurst Park hot-seat as only added to the gamble this weekend.

    Betfred say all the punters want Chelsea over Man United. The Reds have won only once in 12 at Stamford Bridge. Liverpool are getting backed to repeat last year's win at Goodison Park, while we've just laid a single bet of £4000 on Aston Villa to beat Norwich. We were happy to take that considering that Aston Villa have only won two out of their 16 at Villa Park.
whos-hot
  • WHO'S HOT -

    Chelsea (6/4) won last four Premier League games and host Man Utd (21/10).
    Man City (1/4) won last three Premier League games and host Swansea (14/1) (5.30pm).
    Middlesbrough (13/8) won last three Championship games and host Bolton (9/5).
    Colchester (2/1) won last three League One games and face Shrewsbury (13/8).
    Crawley (11/10) won last three League One games and host Oldham (3/1).
whos-not
  • WHO'S NOT -

    Bristol City (2/1) lost last three Championship matches and host Hull (6/4) (5.20pm).
    Ipswich (11/8) lost last three Championship games and host Sheff Weds (11/5).
    Hartlepool (11/2) lost last three League One games and travel to Brentford (8/13).
    Accrington (7/5) lost last four League Two games and host Bristol R (2/1).
traders-view
  • TRADERS' VIEW -

    Paddy Power: Only one team separate Aston Villa and Norwich towards the bottom of the Premier League table, and having picked up their first win in the league last weekend putting in a superb performance in beating Arsenal at Carrow Road, I feel Norwich may be worth following in this particular game. Grant Holt will be full of confidence and will be looking to score in his fourth Premier League game in a row. 10/3 is still available for the Canaries to pick up three points away at Villa Park this Saturday in the early kick-off.

    Sky Bet: In the Premier League Aston Villa look a great lay at slight odds on of 20/21 at home to Norwich. You would have to be very brave to trust Villa at odds on and the Norwich players are sure to be fired up to prove their ex-boss Paul Lambert wrong for leaving them in the summer.
    Also Stoke look another side worthy of taking on at odds on against Sunderland. Martin O'Neill's side are more than capable of matching Stoke's battling ability and 10/11 does look a tad short on the Potters getting a home victory.

    Bet365: Many thanks to Norwich City for last week's defeat of Arsenal because the first seven favourites winning on that Saturday made it a bad day before kick-off, but they saved it from being a whole lot worse. Speculative punters are opposing Arsenal after that performance at Carrow Road, and the one in midweek, and although they'll be popular on the coupon, we aren't seeing a great deal in singles yet for the visit of winless QPR and you could argue that Man City are also worth taking on for the visit of Swansea.
    As ever it looks a competitive coupon in the Football League and yes, AFC Wimbledon beat a Bristol Rovers side in midweek with a number of injuries, but should Gillingham be odds-on for the trip there on Saturday?

    Betfred: At the moment we are laying Chelsea, Liverpool and Aston Villa. Our traders want to get Manchester United in the book so I can see Chelsea shortening before Sunday.
bogey-teams
  • BOGEY TEAMS -

    Norwich (16/5) won just one of the last eight Premier League meetings with Villa (evens).
    Liverpool (19/10) lost just one of the last 11 Premier League games v Everton (7/4).
    Man United (21/10) won just one of the last 12 trips to Chelsea (6/4) in all competitions.
    Bristol City (2/1) unbeaten in last 19 at home to Hull (6/4) (5.20pm).
    Brentford (8/13) unbeaten in last 14 at home to Hartlepool (11/2).
    Sheffield Utd (5/6) unbeaten in last 24 at home to Portsmouth (15/4) (Mon).
    Tranmere (6/5) unbeaten in last nine at home to Preston (11/4).
banker
  • BANKER -

    Tottenham to beat Southampton at 17/20.


    Southampton's only home win this season came against Aston Villa and they are unlikely to be strong enough to hold a Spurs side, who have started to show signs of life under Andre Villas-Boas. Saints have conceded eight goals in their four home games to date and Spurs are well equipped to add to that tally.
hot-shots
  • HOT-SHOTS -

    Norwich's Grant Holt has scored in his last three Premier League games and is 12/5 to score at A Villa.
    Yeovil's Paddy Madden has five in his last four League One games and is 11/5 to score at Crewe.
    Doncaster's Billy Paynter has scored in his last two and is 5/2 to score at Notts C.
    Fleetwood's Steven Gillespie has scored in his last two and is 12/5 to score at Rochdale.
treatment-room
  • TREATMENT ROOM -

    Blackburn to beat Watford at 37/40.


    Defenders Daniel Pudil and Nathaniel Chalobah will miss Watford's trip to Blackburn through suspension. Skipper John Eustace (back), Piccoli Neuton (ankle), Nyron Nosworthy and Prince Buaben (both hamstring) continue to miss out.

    Accrington to beat Bristol Rovers at 7/5.


    Bristol Rovers' defensive crisis has deepened with Tom Parkes and Adam Virgo ruled out of Saturday's trip to Accrington and Garry Kenneth also a doubt. Parkes will serve a suspension for his red card at AFC Wimbledon, while former Celtic defender Virgo, who also played as a striker on Tuesday, has a knee injury. Kenneth limped off at the end of that 3-1 defeat at Wimbledon with a knock on his knee and manager Mark McGhee will be hoping his fellow Scot does not need to join defenders Danny Woodards, Cian Bolger and Michael Smith on the ever-growing injury list. Scott Bevan, Matt Gill, Matt Harrold, Shaquille Hunter and Derek Riordan are also unavailable.
famous-last-words
  • FAMOUS LAST WORDS -

    Norwich DNB to beat Aston Villa at 2/1.


    Speaking after last weekend's impressive defeat of Arsenal, Norwich boss Chris Hughton said: "I am delighted for the team, because the work-rate was outstanding and there is no coincidence in the result. We could have caught them on the counter more and made life easier for ourselves towards the end, but overall we restricted them and so it was a very satisfactory performance. We have deserved this by our play this season so far, so it is a very good feeling to get the win here at Carrow Road for the supporters."

    Walsall to win at Bury at 9/4.


    Walsall boss Dean Smith praised his side after they played almost all of their 1-0 defeat to Sheffield United with 10 men. "I thought we deserved to get something out of the game, but it wasn't to be. We showed a lot of resolve after going down to 10 men and in spells played some really good football. We were also very organised and protected Karl Darlow really well. We played for 76 minutes with 10 men and I can't really remember Karl Darlow having much to do, apart from one save at the end when Shaun Miller went through," said Smith.

    Rotherham to beat Plymouth at 4/5.


    After Morecambe's midweek defeat a Rotherham, boss Jim Bentley said: "We are always disappointed with any defeat. But they are a good side and they put us under a lot of pressure. Rightly so, they are one of the favourites to win the league. They have an unbelievable amount of quality in their squad and I think we probably deserved what we got tonight. We knew we could hit them on the break and that is what we did to go in 1-0 at half time, but in the second half, to be fair, they have pummelled us from minute one."

    Oxford to win at Wycombe at 13/8.


    Speaking after the midweek defeat at Rochdale, Oxford manager Chris Wilder said: "No disrespect to the opposition but I think we played like the home side tonight. I'm struggling to find a way to explain how we have not won this game by two or three. We dominated the second half and chased the game and got done twice. We were the architects of our own down fall. The performance was pretty good and I think if we would have shown more quality from our front four then we would have gone home comfortable winners tonight.

    You can follow me on Twitter at @MattPBriggs

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