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Number Game

Numbers Game: Hornets & Donny the value

Friday 28th December 2012 14:00

Matej Vydra: Hoping to fire Watford to victory

Matej Vydra: Hoping to fire Watford to victory

In the final Numbers Game of 2012, the value is with Watford (14/5) and Doncaster (13/5) to see off Brighton and Preston respectively.

The Banker bet, looking to make it seven successive winners, also returns with a rock-solid 5/6 shot.

The bookies, as usual, have their say and they are quite happy to lay Liverpool at QPR on Sunday and @MattPBriggs has found some more value lower down the league ladder.

Let me know where your money is going this weekend in the box below or via Twitter.


value-bet
  • VALUE BET -

    Doncaster to win at Preston at 13/5 & Watford to win at Brighton at 14/5.


    Donny have a cracking record on the road with eight wins from 12 away matches in League One and they look terrific value to make it nine against out-of-form Preston. Dean Saunders' men left it late on Boxing Day to sink Oldham at Boundary Park, but they have developed a winning mentality and they are more than capable of sinking North End, who have not won at home for seven matches.
    Watford continue to be underestimated by the layers and they are great value away at Brighton having won five of their 11 away games. Brighton have shown patches of good form, but with just four home wins from 12, the visitors are worth a punt.
steamer
  • STEAMERS -

    Sky Bet say Preston are 21/20 from 5/4 to beat Doncaster at Deepdale. Doncaster are still struggling from a spate of injuries and the Yorkshire side appear to be hampered by their threadbare squad once again.
    Wigan are 2/1 from 12/5 to beat Aston Villa after the Midlands side suffered heavy back-to-back defeats without finding the net. Wigan are desperate for points after being sucked back into the relegation dogfight.

    Betfred say plenty of teams are getting backed in the Premier League. Spurs are getting supported at 11/10 in the early kick off, although they don't have a great record at the Stadium of Light only winning once in the last seven.
    Man United are getting backed at 3/10, and we are happy to lay the Red Devils with their leaky defence.
    Also seeing some strong support for Stoke at 4/5 and this price will not last. The Potters have the best defence in the Premier League and look one of the bets of the weekend for me.

    Bet 365 say in the Football League it's Peterborough for the money in the Championship, Swindon and Sheffield United in League One and Plymouth in League Two. And we're happy to be a layer of Exeter in that division too.

    Paddy Power say despite Liverpool's defeat away to Stoke, punters seem happy to follow them on the road again. Having opened up at 21/20 we have seen plenty of interest in them and cut them to a shade of odds on at 10/11. This weekend's opponents are QPR who had a poor result at the weekend at home to WBA, and whose home record is nowhere near that of Liverpool's last opponents Stoke. Harry Redknapp's charges have still only picked up one win this season, while Brendan Rodgers will be very keen to get a solid away win under his belt against the Premier League's bottom team.
whos-hot
  • WHO'S HOT -

    Arsenal (9/20) won last three Premier League games and host Newcastle (7/1) (5.30pm).
    Chelsea (13/8) won last three Premier League games and travel to Everton (2/1) (Sun, 1.30pm)
    Peterborough (21/10) won last three Championship games and travel to Bristol C (7/5).
    Sheffield Wednesday (21/10) won last three Championship games and travel to Hudds (29/20) (12.30pm).
    Brentford (23/20) won last five in League One and travel to Shrewsbury (14/5).
    Bournemouth (17/20) won last three in League One and host Crawley (19/5).
whos-not
  • WHO'S NOT -

    Wigan (23/10) lost last three Premier League games and visit Aston Villa (7/5).
    Blackburn (6/4) lost last three Championship games and visit Barnsley (21/10).
    Charlton (8/5) lost last three Championship games and host Derby (2/1).
    Colchester (7/2) lost last six in League One and host Swindon (10/11).
    Oldham (9/5) lost last three League One games and host Crewe (15/8).
    Hartlepool (10/1) lost last three League One games and travel to Sheff Utd (4/11).
traders-view
  • TRADERS' VIEW -

    Sky Bet: Wolves are 11/10 to see of Ipswich at Molineux, which is something we will be looking to take on. Ipswich travel to their fellow Championship strugglers with great confidence after their defeat of Charlton on Boxing Day. Wanderers have lost three of their last four home games and must be opposed at such a short price.
    Bradford City are a great bet at 10/11 to see off Rochdale at Valley Parade. The Bantams, ironically, have a host of former Dale players in their side including Gary Jones. City are on a good run recently and have begun to show their pedigree in the league now given their rest from cup competitions.

    Betfred: We are seeing money for Liverpool. We are happy to lay Liverpool all day long. The Merseysiders have been the bookies' pal this season and we think they will struggle at Loftus Road against QPR on Sunday.

    Bet365: Punters continue to back Liverpool despite them currently clinging onto a top half spot and it's the same again for their trip to Loftus Road. Many think it's a matter of time before they turn the corner, but until they do they have to be a lay against QPR.
    Aston Villa are a big negative for obvious reasons (I did say they'd get at least a draw at Chelsea...) and with Lambert's injury problems mounting, on top of their current form, it is Wigan attracting support.
    Looking at the liabilities, we'll need to get one of Arsenal, Man Utd, Man City, Stoke or Spurs beaten."

    Paddy Power: Having already beaten Arsenal and Man Utd at home this season, Norwich look a fair price at home to current Premier League champions Man City. There is 11/2 available about the Canaries to pick up all three points this weekend. Man City's form is very up and down of late and they lost poorly away to Sunderland in their most recent game. Both teams are searching for some consistent form but I slightly favour Norwich at the prices.
bogey-teams
  • BOGEY TEAMS -

    Tottenham (23/20) have won just one of their last seven Premier League visits to Sunderland (12/5) (12.45pm).
    Wigan (23/10) have won just one of the last eight Premier League games v Aston Villa (7/5).
    Manchester United (1/3) have won 10 and lost none of their 12 Premier League games v West Brom (10/1).
    Reading (15/8) have won five and lost just one of the last seven league meetings v West Ham (13/8).
    Newcastle (7/1) have won just one of their last 10 Premier League games v Arsenal (9/20).
    Everton (2/1) have lost just one of their last eight Premier League games v Chelsea (13/8) (Sun, 1.30pm).
banker
  • BANKER -

    Stoke to beat Southampton at 5/6.


    The Potters brushed Liverpool aside at The Brit on Boxing Day to make it five wins and four draws from their nine home games to date and they can dispose of Saints to improve that impressive record. Southampton have lost six of their eight away days and they look set for a stern test in Staffordshire.
hot-shots
  • HOT-SHOTS -

    Southend's Gavin Tomlin has 12 in his last nine and is 9/5 to score at Burton.
    Peterborough's Dwight Gayle has six in his last five and is 15/8 to score at Bristol City.
    Chelsea's Juan Mata has six in his last eight and is 11/4 to score at Everton (Sun, 1.30pm).
treatment-room
  • TREATMENT ROOM -

    Fleetwood to beat York at 6/5.


    York will definitely be without leading scorer Ashley Chambers when they make the trip to Fleetwood. Chambers, who has struck eight League Two goals this term, has a stomach problem. Centre-back Chris Doig is another doubt after he came off against Chesterfield with a knock.
famous-last-words
  • FAMOUS LAST WORDS -

    Barnsley to beat Blackburn at 21/10.


    Speaking after the 2-1 defeat by Birmingham, Barnsley boss Keith Hill said: "We would have been 2-1 to the advantage but we've got to accept that Craig Davies has made the wrong decision. He's scored penalties for us, important goals and today he's missed a penalty so I accept there are vulnerabilities to everybody. We have to take it, don't we? It's a measure of the task that we've got. We look as though we're controlling a football match and maybe shoot ourselves in the foot - not once but twice, three times - the penalty as well."

    Plymouth to beat Wycombe at 6/5.


    Speaking after the 1-1 draw with Torquay, Argyle boss Carl Fletcher said: "It was terrible conditions today, wind, rain, but I thought we played really well and pretty much dominated the game. We know Torquay are a really good side with some really good players and some match winners. We know they're dangerous and I thought today we coped with everything they threw at us. We took the game to Torquay, created numerous chances and we could have had a few more goals but to be a goal down with not long left we're pleased to get an equaliser. "

    You can follow me on Twitter at @MattPBriggs

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