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Numbers Game: 15/2 Christmas cracker

Friday 21st December 2012 8:56

Manchester United: Fancied at Swansea

Manchester United: Fancied at Swansea

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Christmas is nearly here and if Manchester United beat Swansea from behind at a jaw-dropping 15/2 on Sunday, it will certainly have come early.

The Value Bet came good last week as Millwall (9/4) brushed promotion-chasing Leicester aside, while @MattPBriggs' Banker made if five winning bets on the spin as the Stoke v Everton game ended under 2.5 goals at 4/6.

This week I'm attempting to pay for Christmas with my Value Bet - a 15/2 shot on Manchester United to win from behind at Swansea. And the Banker is also a Christmas cracker full of value with Leeds heavily fancied at 17/10 at home to Middlesbrough, as well as ll the usual pointers and views from the bookies.

VALUE BET



Manchester United to beat Swansea from behind at 15/2 (Sun).



Manchester United have gone behind in 10 of their 17 games and have managed to win seven of those 10 games. With that in mind they look real value to go behind in Wales before hitting top gear to grab the points.


STEAMERS



Sky Bet say MK Dons are now 21/20 to win away at Doncaster having been as big as 5/4 earlier in the week. Some firms opened 7/4 about the Milton Keynes club. Doncaster have had persistent injury worries and still can't seem to field a strong first XI. MK Dons are in superb form and are rated by most as the best team in League One ahead of fellow form horses Sheffield United and Bournemouth.


A lower key move is Plymouth to beat Accrington at the Crown Ground, we offered 7/4 on Saturday but now they are a best of 6/4 to win, the Devon team have improved in recent weeks, defying their financial woes.



Bet365 say Championship punters had their fingers burnt with Cardiff and Crystal Palace last week, but there are plenty who fancy ian Holloway's men to bounce back at home to Huddersfield and we're also seeing good money for Burnley, Millwall and Charlton.



Paddy Power say they have seen a little bit of a move on Arsenal after their performance at Reading - punters believe Arsene Wenger's troops will follow this up with a similar display at the DW Stadium and take care of Wigan.


We've also seen a little bit of support for Swansea earlier this week against league leaders Manchester United. Whether this remains the case come kick off is open to doubt, with United starting to edge towards a tempting price.


WHO'S HOT



Manchester United (5/7) won last five Premier League games and travel to Swansea (9/2) (Sun, 1.30pm).


Norwich (3/1) won last three in Premier League and travel to West Brom (evens).


Hull (19/10) won last three in Championship and travel to Derby (13/8) (Fri).


Brentford (5/6) won last four in League One and host Stevenage (19/5).


WHO'S NOT



Reading (20/1) lost last six Premier League games and travel to Man City (1/6).


Colchester (13/10) lost last four in League One and travel to Walsall (13/10).


Rochdale (8/5) lost last four in League Two and host Cheltenham (9/4).


Bristol R (11/4) lost last three in League Two and host Rotherham (11/10).


Accrington (9/5) lost last three in League Two and host Plymouth (15/8).


TRADERS' VIEW



Sky Bet: Leeds' takeover will lift them after a tough midweek defeat and the 17/10 about them beating Middlesborough at Elland Road looks good. We are staying towards the top end of the market about 'Boro at 6/4.


Preston have been getting stronger and stronger in the betting in recent weeks and the 11/5 available for them to win at Coventry looks good value, the Sky Blues are 6/5. Graham Westley has emphasised the tough game that awaits them at the Ricoh Arena on Saturday, but The Lilywhites have only lost two of the last 12 games and will be tough to break down.



Bet365:The Aston Villa boys did us a favour last week and we'll be looking to Paul Lambert's Lions for the same type of result this time around at Chelsea. Chelsea look a lay and I'll personally be backing the Villa boys at a near double figure price


QPR are up and running - finally - and they're a side we're also with this weekend as Newcastle have to be opposed in their current form. Maybe this is the weekend for taking on the hotpots because there is a few quid about for Swansea and Wigan can always produce an upset at a tasty price - although I may be asking too much for Reading to help us out at Man City.



Paddy Power: Liverpool look a little short (4/7) to see off Fulham at Anfield. A sound beating last week by an improving Villa side, but once again Liverpool are very short at home to a solid, established Premiership side. Fulham have the players to trouble Liverpool and will see this as a match they can take a point from at the very least.


Southampton (21/20) also look on the short side at home to Sunderland.


BOGEY TEAMS



Arsenal (8/11) have won four and lost just one of their seven Premier League trips to Wigan (4/1) (12.45pm).


Spurs (4/6) have failed to keep a clean sheet in eight previous Premier League meetings with Stoke City (11/2).


West Ham (2/1) have won none of the last eight Premier League games against Everton (8/5).


Fulham (6/1) have won only one of their 11 Premier League trips to Liverpool (4/7) (5.30).


Swansea (9/2) have won just one of their last nine league meetings with Manchester United (4/6) (Sun, 1.30pm).


Aston Villa (19/2) have won just one of their last 10 Premier League games at Chelsea (4/11) (Sun, 4pm).


BANKER



Leeds to beat Middlesbrough at 17/10.



Leeds were thumped by Chelsea in midweek, but they look a decent bet to get back on track against high-flying Middlesbrough. The Whites have seen off Leicester and Crystal Palace at Elland Road recently and have managed six home wins from their 11 games. Boro are flying high but they have been vulnerable on the road losing five times.


HOT-SHOTS



Peterborough's Dwight Gayle has scored four in his last three and is 15/8 to score v Bolton.


Leeds' Luciano Becchio has scored five in his last six games and is 13/8 to score v Middlesbrough.


Aston Villa's Christian Benteke has scored three in his last two games and is 7/2 to score at Chelsea (Sun).


TREATMENT ROOM



Plymouth to win at Accrington at 15/8.



Accrington manager Leam Richardson has problems in defence. Centre-back pairing Peter Murphy and Dean Winnard suffered injuries during the midweek FA Cup second-round replay defeat to Oxford and are rated as doubtful due to respective hip and head concerns.



Sheffield United to win at Crawley at 19/10.



Crawley could be without first-choice centre-backs Claude Davis and Kyle McFadzean. Davis is a doubt after jarring his knee against Stevenage last weekend and McFadzean is struggling for fitness after an illness.

Shaun Cooper is still out with a groin injury so young duo Joe Walsh and Mark Connolly could start at the back. Striker Billy Clarke missed that game with hamstring trouble and will be checked over.


FAMOUS LAST WORDS



Charlton to win at Sheff Weds at 19/10.



Speaking after last week's 2-0 defeat at Bolton, Charlton boss Chris Powell said: "We were disappointed because we grew into the game and created the better chances. In the end, though, we were beaten by a substitute who has a huge pedigree in the game and he has made a huge difference. I'm sitting here thinking that we should have won but we'll be looking to go into the Christmas period trying to bounce back from a defeat which shouldn't have happened."



Cheltenham to win at Rochdale at 19/10 (Fri).



Speaking after last week's 1-1 draw with Port Vale,Cheltenham manager Mark Yates admitted he was shell-shocked: "I can't believe we missed that chance at the end. We just expected Daryl to stroke it into the empty net. Everyone was up on the bench and I thought it would have been just what we deserved. I thought we were excellent. They are a really good side - you can see that - they have some big strong lads and Pope has got 20-odd goals already. We kept going until the 93rd minute but just a bit shell-shocked that we have not won the game. We had numerous chances to win it."



Fleetwood to win at Oxford at 2/1.



Speaking after last week's 2-2 draw at Gillingham, Fleetwood Town manager Graham Alexander said: "At 2-0 up, you've put yourself in the driving seat and you want to take the three points. Coming to Gillingham, who are top of the league, is always going to be tough. You know they'll put you under pressure. The lads are disappointed that we haven't won the game and that's a good feeling - that we've come to the leaders and we're disappointed with a point."



You can follow me on Twitter at @MattPBriggs


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