TEAMtalk

Numbers Game: Canaries can sink Reds

Friday 27-April-2012 14:44

VALUE BET

Norwich to beat Liverpool at 5/2 (5.30pm).

Paul Lambert should be given the freedom of Norwich after guiding the Canaries to safety in the top flight and they look good value to heap more woe on Liverpool. The Reds have been far from convincing in the last few months and Norwich will be looking to bounce back from last week's reverse at Blackburn.

STEAMERS

West Brom simply must be backed to beat Aston Villa at 11/10. Despite the Baggies playing only for pride at this stage the game presents a fine opportunity to confirm their status as Midlands best side in style, whilst deepening their arch-rivals relegation woes. Roy Hodgson's charges were 6/5 earlier in the week but they have shortened after support.

Birmingham are 11/10 from 11/8 to see off Reading at St. Andrews in one of the early games. With the Royals already confirmed as league champions, many are expecting Brian McDermott's side to take their foot of the gas for this final game of the season. The Royals were as short as 13/8 earlier in the week but are now 23/10 to take the three points.

WHO'S HOT

Newcastle (11/8) won last six in Prem and travel to Wigan (15/8).

Man City (11/10) won last three in Prem and face Man Utd (Mon) (12/5).

Millwall (13/10) won last five in Champ and host Blackpool (15/8).

Cardiff (evens) are nine games unbeaten in Champ and travel to C Palace (11/4).

Birmingham (11/10) are eight games unbeaten and host Reading (23/10).

Charlton (evens) won last five League One games and travel to Preston (13/5).

Stevenage (16/5) won last three League One games and travel to Sheff Utd (4/5).

Chesterfield (8/5) won last three League One games and travel to Yeovil (8/5).

MK Dons (4/5) won last three League One games and travel to Rochdale (100/30).

Bury (11/10) won last three League One games and host Oldham (12/5).

Crewe (11/5) are 14 League Two games unbeaten and travel to Torquay (6/5).

Crawley (30/100) are 13 League Two games unbeaten and host Hereford (17/2).

WHO'S NOT

Wolves (5/1) are 11 Prem games without a win and travel to Swansea (8/15).

Aston Villa (12/5) are seven Prem games without a win and travel to WBA (11/10).

Barnsley (15/8) lost last three in Champ and host Brighton (11/8).

C Palace (11/4) are eight games without a Champ win and host Cardiff (evens).

Brighton (11/8) are seven games without a Champ win and travel to Barnsley (15/8).

Walsall (7/4) have lost their last three league games and host Huddersfield (6/4).

Carlisle (4/6) lost last three eague games and host Exeter (4/1).

Colchester (7/5) are 11 league games without a win and host Tranmere (15/8).

Macclesfield (evens) are 21 league games without a win and host Burton (13/5).

TRADERS' VIEW

Sky Bet have Milwall at 13/10 to see off Blackpool at The Den, which is far too short in the opinion of the online outfit. Blackpool are 12 places above the Lions in the table and with their play-off campaign looming they will be looking to cement fourth and secure a potentially easier route through to the Premier League.

BOGEY TEAMS

Spurs (4/11) have won five successive Prem matches v Blackburn (13/2 (Sun).

Wigan (15/8) have won four of five Prem home games v Newcastle (11/8).

Wolves (5/1) have lost just one of last nine games in all comps v Swansea (8/15).

Everton (4/5) have won all 10 Prem home games against Fulham (7/2).

Stoke (16/5) have won three of last four home matches in all comps v Arsenal (5/6).

Sunderland (10/11) have won five successive Prem meetings v Bolton (14/5).

Leicester (8/5) have won three out of their last four trips to Leeds (8/5).

Millwall (13/10) are 14 games without defeat at home to Blackpool (15/8).

Portsmouth (11/4) won three out of last four trips to N Forest (4/5).

BANKER

Everton to beat Fulham at 4/5.

The Toffees look a 'mortgage job' at home to away-day strugglers Fulham.

HOT-SHOTS

Everton's Nikica Jelavic has seven in six and is evens to score v Fulham.

Blackpool's Stephen Dobbie has five in five and is 11/8 to score at Millwall.

Watford's Troy Deeney has three in three and is 7/4 to score v Middlesbrough.

Bury's Mike Grella has four in three and is 6/4 to score v Oldham.

TREATMENT ROOM

Doncaster to beat Ipswich at 12/5.

Ipswich left-back Aaron Cresswell has a torn hamstring, Luke Hyam is also out, while fellow midfielder Lee Martin remains doubtful with a groin problem. Ryan Stevenson (Achilles) is a doubt and Jimmy Bullard is missing.

Plymouth to beat Morecambe at 21/10.

Morecambe's top scorer Kevin Ellison (back) will rest up until the summer and Nick Fenton (calf) heads the list of remaining absentees, which includes Laurence Wilson, Andy Fleming (both knee) and Stewart Drummond (appendix).

FAMOUS LAST WORDS

Accrington to win at Bristol Rovers at 23/10.

Speaking after last weekend's 1-1 draw with Shrewsbury, boss Paul Cook said: "We created a lot of chances and worked hard and it feels like a win for us against a good team. We got beat at Cheltenham last week but we have responded well. We showed a lot of character and didn't buckle when we went 1-0 down and kept pressing. We know Bryan Hughes can do that and it was a great goal but we win as a team and lose as a team and it's not about individuals."

You can follow Matty on Twitter at @mattpbriggs.