Football Moneyball could work but needs work

This topic contains 6 replies, has 3 voices, and was last updated by  Mikus 7 years ago.

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  • #1451044
    mwake
    mwake
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    http://m.bbc.com/sport/football/37954971

    I read the above article in the link and realised looking at Southampton that its easy to see why FSG haven’t been able to implement a football version of Moneyball eqvilalent at LFC. Southampton have spent ages putting in the foundation for success in their youth academy and scouting system. Looking at the effectivity of our recruitment policy our system is obviously terrible in comparison.

    Some might say that Southampton haven’t done much better than us in recent years but when you factor in the money we’ve spent compared to what they’ve spent you can see their system is much better. The only thing that has stopped their system from winning trophies is that they’ve​ had to sell their main stars year after year… if they never had that pressure to sell then they’d probably be Champions League regulars at the very least.

    What can we learn from teams like Southampton and Dortmund is that by investing heavily in the academy and scouting system we will be able to enjoy the great talents at bargain prices…

    I know that Klopp is trying to bring the academy and senior team together training wise which is definately a good idea. But it’s obvious at the moment we have a long way to go, especially considering we have given Southampton around 100 million for players in just 3 years. This averages out to about giving Southampton 30 million a season. Now there’s talk of going back for Van Dijk for a record​ fee… The 10th richest club in the world shouldn’t be doing this continuosly, we just need to develop our own world class system and then reap the benefits.

    Rafa had good foresight and tried to change things system wise but since then our long term plans have been affected by too many managerial changes and lack of director of football, which meant ideas and strategies got reset to often. Now hopefully with stability in Klopp the club can invest in a long term strategy and take advantage of cheap telents like Dortmund, Sevilla and Southampton do.

    #1451521

    Mikus
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    • :

    “…but since then our long term plans have been affected by too many managerial changes and lack of director of football, which meant ideas and strategies got reset too often.”

    Therein lies a big problem. It’s like with changes of government – things are rarely allowed to develop because of the lack of continuity. Plus FSG themselves have themselves been learning on the job.

    As regards the scouts, I’d simply like to see more old fashioned scouting brought back that looks more at the less obvious aspects of a player. Stats can certainly help paint a picture, but we have to look deeper into things – a good example of this is in the film “The Big Short” where everyone was looking the other way succumbing to conventional wisdom that the financial markets were fine because of the numbers – bar a few people who decided not to assume anything. They looked deeper into everything and found something very different and simply had the guts in their convictions to bet the other way. They were laughed at, at the time, less so after 2008. Giving scouts more power is a good idea in theory; the transfer committee was a good idea in theory. It’s the practical application of that, that caused tension and power battles between them and the manager. (The one concern I still have is that FSG feel more comfortable blowing money on PL proven players, and are always happy to sanction big money moves in this market – we have such a mixed record here – we need to have more conviction when bidding on other players so long as the due diligence is done – indeed in the film a company boss tried to stop their investor from going ahead with the bet because they panicked and such fear can be poison in this situation). I wouldn’t bring the committee back, it would be far more productive to let the relationships between the scouts and manager develop naturally. That will take time for belief and trust to develop. We saw this last summer. Unsurprisingly, Klopp felt most comfortable early in his reign to go for players *he* knew about because the trust was perhaps not yet developed with the recruitment team – hence in comes Karius, Matip & Klaven. Just as Rafa raided the Spanish market when he first came in.

    #1452225
    mwake
    mwake
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    So true Mikus, you’re right I think things will get a lot better the longer Klopp is in the job. I actually believe we should stick with Klopp even if we don’t win the title in the four years. That way underlying strategies will have time to bear fruit regardless of what is happening on the pitch. Thats why what you said Mikus about letting things take their course naturally between the scouts and the manager will be a positive thing in the long term. Sacking Klopp becasue he doesn’t win the title in two years will just mean another reset button.

    However, if you can get a competent Director of Football I think that is the ultimate situation. A DOF would ensure some sort of continuity. I think a DOF can work because DOF should also be involved in the managerial recruitment process so there shouldnt be any real major disconnect between manager and DOF. Look at Southampton’s DOF Less Reed who has presided over countless managers with great success. We just need to hire a DOF who Klopp trusts and respects. On the flip side Wenger, Ferguson and Mourinho haven’t really had a DOF so you could argue against that too!

    #1452243
    mwake
    mwake
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    • :

    I think Bingo posted this in the summer transfer thread, its a good read about Michael Edwards and his history and role at LFC. Hes going to play an important part this summer.

    Michael Edwards: The lowdown on Liverpool FC’s new sporting director

    #1452252

    NotoriousBingo
    Participant
    • :

    I don´t believe in “moneyball” and I don´t think the club is trying to implement the concept at the club.
    First of all we just need a much better scouting network, its ridiculous how seldom we unearth some unpolished gems at the club. That might also be down to the recruitment teams that have been in place during the last two decades or so.
    Lets take for example Sterling, everybody knew he had talent when Liverpool brought him in at the tender age of 14, it was a record transfer.
    The club should be focusing more on talent like that. Thankfully we are hearing positive things about Sessagnon, he is one good prospect and unlikely to falter.
    In the past the academy has failed, there was not enough discipline there, reports about youth players passed out from binge drinking on club property were much to common.

    #1452378
    mwake
    mwake
    Participant
    • :

    Wow binge drinking youth players… shocking stuff to hear bingo. Liverpool’s youth development doesn’t look good, Ibe, Sterling and Gomez aren’t even local to the north of England let alone Liverpool, what’s happening with real local talent… We need another local lad with Liverpool in their blood…Trent Alexander I suppose but we need more if possible…Surely there must be talented youngsters​ in Liverpool area?

    #1452460

    Mikus
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    • :

    Mwake, agree wholeheartedly about local talent. Carragher opened up a coaching academy in Bootle with his own money which is great, but should the club not also be doing these things in the different communities that make up the city, as well as investing in more facilities to give more opportunities to young kids? It was for this purpose the club was first established and given some of the problems of young gangs in some areas, as with most cities, it seems morally wrong that the club blows and wastes money on supposed global talent instead of looking after & developing its own.

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