April/May – The Business End of the Season
This topic contains 126 replies, has 16 voices, and was last updated by Rob Fort Worth TX 10 months, 1 week ago.
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March 18, 2023 at 3:27 pm #2187331
Home Games Remaining
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Arsenal, Forest, Brentford, Spurs, Villa, Fulham
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Away Games Remaining
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City, Chelsea, Leeds, West Ham, Leicester, Soton
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36 points up for grabs
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Average points haul for fourth place over the past 5 seasons has been 70 points. We are currently on 42.
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We have to secure 77% of our remaining points to ‘have a chance.’ 28 out of the next 36 points.
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Problem is Spurs and Newcastle are in the same boat and require less points than us. Spurs need 22 and Newcastle need 23. It’s OK saying X number of points will get us fourth but we have to bring in any challengers too into that equation. Only a matter of time when Newcastle and Spurs go on a winning streak and that’ll be that.
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After this weekend (expected Newcastle to win last night) when Brentford beat Leicester, Spurs win at Soton we could be 9 points off 4th (albeit played two games less) in 6th place (if Brentford win).
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Thing is with this Liverpool team it would not shock me in the slightest if we went to City and Chelsea and won. If we beat Arsenal and Spurs at home. Then dropped points at home to Brentford (drew last season), Villa (needed a late penalty last season), Fulham (lost last season). Also drop points away to West Ham (lost last season), Leicester (lost last season), Soton (won late-ish last season). These three teams will be scrapping for their lives between now and the end of the season.
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Add injuries (one a week – this week it’s Nunez’s turn – again) and who knows who else will come back crocked after the internationals. Also add the funk (Alisson insinuating the right attitude isn’t there amongst some of the players).
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My heart wants fourth (of course) and hoping the break does us good (the last break didn’t tho) and get Diaz and Thiago back but I just cannot see us getting fourth, I cannot. It’s not being defeatist, it’s what I’ve seen ALL season. Injuries, funk, individual and collective errors, inconsistency.
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Top 6City
Arsenal
Man U
Newcastle
Spurs
LiverpoolMarch 18, 2023 at 3:53 pm #2187336Actually 7th place, 8 pts behind United in 4th and both teams on 26 games.
March 18, 2023 at 4:07 pm #2187337Apparently Nunez is a small cut on his ankle I read. Sounds like he’s been withdrawn from these friendly internationals intentionally so that he can stay and train with the club.
The Bournemouth game was the one that really knocked the wind out of the recent positivity in the league. Palace didn’t help either. That was 5 points dropped and at this stage is massive. I’m not sure many realistically expected the demolition of Utd, perhaps even the win so that balances out the points accrued somewhat….ish.
We really need to sort out our away form in particular and also the games against bottom half of table. It’s this time of year where ya see the teams fighting for their lives pull out results against some of the big boys.
The lack of midfielders that can now be trusted must mean we’ll have to change to a 4-2-3-1 or a variation of.We could even see 68/69 points take fourth this year. We’ve a game in hand against Chelsea. No doubt it’ll be mighty tough but I remember a coupla seasons ago where we took it right down to the wire to secure 4th with a Gini goal.
In the weeks preceding the team was written off from achieving 4th. I’m not prepared to write them off just yet.March 18, 2023 at 6:21 pm #2187372Spurs and Brentford helping us again today but of zero benefit if we keep getting beat by the likes of Wolves and Bournemouth who both got bashed today.
March 18, 2023 at 6:23 pm #218737340 goals for Haaland. Predictable and frightening.
March 18, 2023 at 7:35 pm #2187389Make that 42 goals. Crazy. Off topic I know but crazy.
March 18, 2023 at 7:43 pm #2187394Who knows where City would be without him.
We’re currently 7 points off 4th with 2 games in hand.
March 18, 2023 at 10:33 pm #2187416I know Ginger but they won the league last season without him.
March 19, 2023 at 4:33 am #2187418Can’t see us picking up 3 points away from home. We’ve won 6 away games this season in 20, 3 in 13 in the league. Overall we’ve won 47% (19/40) of our games this season and 46% (12/26) in the league. To get to this 70 points mark, we need 28 more points, which means 9 or 10 wins out of 12. That’s at least a 75% win rate and almost the kind of form we’ve been putting up at our best. Our current form suggests 18 points from wins and another 3 from draws which leaves us on 63 at the end of the season. All this is assuming that we either maintain or improve on our current record. There’s also the possibility of another implosion given how the season’s gone. Anpthe4 thumping or 2 could be the nail in the coffin. Could still be enough for top 4 but if this lot couldn’t show up when it mattered, why would they do so now when it doesn’t?
March 19, 2023 at 5:29 am #2187420Rob, same here my heart wants, hoping for top 4.. but i cant see it. Theres just too many issues with this team at the moment. Im looking forward more to the continued rebuilding in the summer.
March 19, 2023 at 7:45 am #2187427Do not forget Brighton…Theya re the favorite for 6th place.
March 19, 2023 at 2:32 pm #2187499Indeed Razor, it utterly means we have to go from the level we’re at now to the level we were at a year ago AND hoping both Newcastle and Spurs f**k it up completely.
March 20, 2023 at 2:25 pm #2187769Not sure why you do this to yourself rob! Negative sean is bsck for a few months only!
Can no way see us getting 4th. We have being atrocious for most of the season. We are strolling around. Some of our passing has just being abysmal.
I think we will beat Arsenal but lose another few games away from home againest mediocre opposition. It’s a horrendous season playing sone of the worst football seen under Klopp
6th place finish for us which means the Europa league. Horrible season. Can’t get go over how bad we have being at times
March 27, 2023 at 5:45 pm #2189466Carrying on from ‘points needed’ thread from the Thiago post…..the first 13 games we averaged 1 pt a game and the last 13, 1.7 ppg.
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Bingo asked what have we averaged over the last six games – answer is, 2.1 pts per game. But, there were blocks of games this season where we averaged 2+ pts per game then met the likes of Brighton, Wolves, Leeds, Forest, Bournemouth, Palace, Brentford the quickly slipped back to one point whatever ppg. The story of our season hence my point that, sadly, this team can’t be trusted to get a good enough run going. We haven’t won three straight league games all season, that’s 8 months lads so to expect this team to hit that ‘magical number’ with what’s gone before is extremely optimistic at best.
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As I’ve previously stated, the average pts haul over the last 5 season for fourth is 70. The average wins needed over that length of time is 21 wins – we are on 12. We potentially need (not NEED, ie. guarantee, as some posters have stated) 9 more wins from 12 and/or 28 points (absolutely no guarantee as Newcastle and Spurs are in a better position than us and 5 years ago we needed 75 pts for 4th and 22 wins).
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That’s a 75% win rate needed against Cheslea away (already drawn at home to them), City away (haven’t won in the league there for 8 years) and Arsenal at home (decent record at home them but drew 3/4 in all comps at home and this season is a different Arsenal) then against teams we’ve slipped up against all season who will be battling to stay in the PL.
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Could we do it? YES we could. Hope we can (obviously) but we need to metamorphize from this team to the league winning/CL league winning team for the remaining 12 games. I just can’t see THIS TEAM, THIS SEASON, doing that but will always hope and dream that we can.March 27, 2023 at 7:09 pm #2189475Its not gonna be the average 70 points, its gonna be less than that, at least 5 points less…
March 27, 2023 at 7:19 pm #2189477Bingo, no team has got fourth place with 65 points or less in the last 19 seasons and I don’t expect that to change this season.
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If 65 did it then Spurs only need 16 points from 10 games (1.6pts ppg) and Newcastle 18 points from 12 games (1.5 ppg).March 27, 2023 at 7:50 pm #2189481Spurs 21/22 71pts
Chelsea 20/21 67pts
Chelsea 19/20 66pts
Spurs 18/19 71pts
Liverpool 17/18 75pts
Liverpool 16/17 76pts69pts might do it this season the way things are going.
March 27, 2023 at 8:11 pm #2189488Who knows Ginger. One thing we do know is that Liverpool really cannot afford any more defeats.
March 27, 2023 at 8:12 pm #2189489Spurs are averaging 1.75 points for the whole season and they just imploded, there is no way they are gonna get better as the season progresses and Newcastle who have been performing above their means are currently registering 1.3 points on average in their last 6 games…
March 27, 2023 at 8:25 pm #2189490Yes Rob it’s gonna be very difficult.
Newc look favourites at the min. -
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