Man City relegation now likeliest punishment of FFP sanctions as odds are drastically slashed

A new study has found that Manchester City face a massive 60% cumulative probability of relegation this season as a result of the likely points punishment they will face for breaching FFP regulations, while a football finance expert has revealed why the Cityzens probably already know the size of the sanctions they will receive.

The eight-time Premier League champions have been found guilty by the Premier League of breaching 114 counts of financial irregularities and having swelled their finances by some £830m over a nine-year period between 2009 and 2018.

While it is important to note that City continue to protest their innocence and have already lodged an appeal against the verdict, and with a top sports lawyer exclusively revealing they could the bid to clear their name all the way to the High Court, a separate Premier League commission is looking into what is the best and most likely punishment for City.

In the most extreme example, this journalist presented a football oblivion scenario which could see City tumble out of the EFL altogether.

Now, a high-powered sports analytical model has revealed that there is a 40% chance that a historic 60 to 80-point deduction is likely to be administered on City this season, with the punishment designed specifically to force the club out of the English top flight.

Off the back of this, a number of leading bookmakers have now slashed the odds on Enzo Maresca’s side – beaten 2-4 by PSG in the Champions League on Wednesday night – being relegated this season, with the Cityzens now a best-priced 7/4 for the drop.

Whether a 60 to 80-point deduction this season is deemed fair enough given the level of the sham contract claims remains open for debate, although that would be in keeping with what this presenter said he had heard would be inflicted on the Cityzens.

DON’T MISS ~ Man City FFP: Peter Schmeichel demands 125-point penalty in four-part punishment plan.

Man City may already know their punishment – expert

Meanwhile, football finance expert Kieran Maguire reckons City bosses may already be aware of the punishment the Premier League plans to impose on the club, and having also revealed why the authorities want to make a formal announcement in 12 weeks, subject to appeals.

Maguire said on talkSPORT: “Well, for all we know, is that City could have received the punishment and everybody signed a non-disclosure agreement and they are appealing the original verdict of guilt at the same time as knowing what the punishment could be. There’s so much silence.

“We did see the revelations a couple of weeks ago that four clubs had been told in advance of the other clubs in the Premier League the verdict.

“So, the degree of secrecy that’s taking place here, it could very well be significant.

“Chelsea were given a potential suspended points deduction for their financial issues, and they appealed that and they were successful and we didn’t know anything about that.”

Maguire has also provided a fresh update on the Market Madness podcast to discuss a likely points penalty.

“The redacted report sets out year by year how much the sham contracts contributed to the artificial commercial revenue,” he began.

“Over the rolling three-year period, in some years we could be talking about a £350million difference. That would shatter all records for PSR compliance.

“Everton and Nottingham Forest’s deductions covered a single breach in a single year, an overspend of no more than £20million. So is there a ceiling on what can be deducted?

“And the sanctions hearing could already have taken place. Because City are appealing and everyone has NDAs, we might not know the sanction until the appeal result. But it has to be multiple double figures of points, before you start the calculations.

“I worked out that if you add up nine years of Champions League non-participation for individual clubs at an average of £50million a time, around £20million for the Europa League, plus potential claims from players who missed bonuses, the Premier League’s legal fees and a fine, we’re talking in excess of a billion pounds regardless of the points deduction.”

When asked about the likelihood of relegation, he added: “I think it would be a very unusual vote.

“We did see Bury get expelled from League Two some time ago but I think that the other clubs would have to bear in mind that Manchester City would probably take legal redress and that could prove to be very expensive if they are expelled without the verdict being held and without the appeal.

“So it’s a dangerous route to go down, but the weight of feeling does vary from club to club. Certainly some of the other elite clubs are very unhappy with the delay in the situation because they feel it has an impact upon their ability to qualify for the Champions League.

“I think some of the more mid-tier clubs who don’t see Manchester City as a threat, their main concern is, is this going to further increase the already sky-high legal costs that have been incurred by the Premier League and they don’t want any part of it.

“So, they want a quick resolution and then they can get on with the rest of their season and focus on their own clubs.”

Meanwhile, PSG boss Luis Enrique has offered his verdict on the potential punishment facing City and has sent a message which supporters of the club will really appreciate.

Steven Gerrard has also broken his silence on City’s alleged sham contracts, having dropped a somewhat surprising verdict on City and whether his Liverpool side should be awarded retrospective Premier League titles.