Who will leave Man Utd first: Casemiro, Kobbie Mainoo or Manuel Ugarte?

Manchester United are eyeing a midfield rebuild in 2026 but they will need to make room for any new arrivals first – so who should be shown the door in January?

Casemiro, Kobbie Mainoo and Manuel Ugarte have all faced uncertain futures at some point over the past few months and would be among the candidates to leave as the Man Utd midfield gets reinforced. But in which order?

Our writers debate which of those three players will leave Man Utd first.

James Marshment

It’s a delicate situation at Manchester United and we could well see the scenario where in a year’s time, all three could be gone.

While Mainoo’s situation is more about his needs, rather than the club’s, I do think United would be loathe to let him leave, with a fear that his departure would simply be a step too far for the fans.

Casemiro will more than likely leave when his contract expires in the summer unless he somehow accepts one of the biggest wage reductions ever seen.

Ugarte, though, is the one I think will leave first and in the January window; that’s despite our sources saying he will likely stay. But I can’t see a scenario where that happens.

The Uruguayan is a funny one; talked up to a huge extent upon signing, but ultimately proved nowhere near the player originally billed.

I don’t think it’s worked out at all, and supporters of the club tell me he’s simply not up to the level required, with one describing him to me as “useless”.

Would anyone miss him were he left? Not for me, and I think of the trio, he’s the one most dispensable.

Harry Watkinson

Any midfield exit at Man Utd would probably mean Ruben Amorim first bringing more cover in that area. The futures of Casemiro, Mainoo and Ugarte have all been speculated over, but I feel that Ugarte is the most likely to depart of the trio.

Casemiro has gone through periods of poor form for Man Utd, which has been painful for the club, given his £350,000 per week wage. However, he has generally performed well this season, so a departure in January would leave a big gap that Amorim may struggle to fill. If he agrees to a pay cut, he could even pen a contract extension and stay beyond this season.

Mainoo is not short of suitors, and his lack of playing time has left him frustrated. However, there have been signs in recent weeks that he’ll be more involved, making substitute appearances in three of the last four Premier League games. I expect the Red Devils to stand firm on their position that he isn’t going anywhere in January.

Ugarte, however, has largely failed to impress since joining the club in the summer of 2024. He was an unused substitute in Man Utd’s 4-1 win over Wolves, and amid reports of interest from Galatasaray, he is probably the player Amorim would be most likely to sanction a sale of, even though he previously signed him at Sporting CP.

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Subhankar Mondal

I think that it will be Kobbie Mainoo. Casemiro is not going anywhere until next summer, and I doubt Man Utd will let Manuel Ugarte leave in the middle of the season. Mainoo wanted to leave last summer, and he wants to leave on loan now.

Man Utd convinced the England international midfielder to stay at Old Trafford last summer, but what will Red Devils manager Ruben Amorim say to Mainoo now to persuade him to stay at the club for the rest of the season?

A place in the England squad for the 2026 World Cup finals next summer is at stake, and Mainoo has to leave Old Trafford in January.

Samuel Bannister

Of the three players, Casemiro is the one starting most regularly at the moment, so it’s between Mainoo and Ugarte for the one who needs to leave most pressingly.

Mainoo already wanted out in the summer in a bid to boost his gametime and he would be well within his rights to push again for an exit in January given his lack of starts since.

United don’t want to lose him, which makes it more complicated, but he would attract more interest from elsewhere than Ugarte, on paper.

Therefore, I’m predicting Mainoo to be the most likely to leave United ahead of a new midfielder – who would further block his pathway – coming in.

James Holland

Ugarte will be the first of the trio to leave, departing Old Trafford in January in search of game time.

Amorim arrived at United a fan of Ugarte after they worked together at Sporting CP, so it is pretty damning that he refuses to select the midfielder in his starting eleven.

Ugarte does not have the game intelligence or quality on the ball needed to shine in the Premier League, and I expect him to either be sold or loaned out next month.

Casemiro will see out the remainder of his contract before likely moving to Saudi Arabia on a free transfer in June.

Mainoo would love to leave United on loan in January to boost his World Cup chances, but Amorim simply will not let that happen.

Mainoo is in an extremely awkward position as Amorim does not quite think the 20-year-old is good enough to start big matches, but he also does not want to weaken his squad by sanctioning an exit.

Nathan Egerton

Manchester United are set for a midfield overhaul in 2026 and all three of these players could be at different clubs next season.

Unlike the other two, Casemiro has become a key player under Ruben Amorim and is one of the first names on the teamsheet.

The Brazil international won’t be moving clubs in the January transfer window but his contract at Old Trafford is due to expire at the end of the season.

While United have an option to extend it for another 12 months, they are looking to reduce the wage bill and he is their highest-paid player with a £350,000-per-week deal.

Ugarte thrived under Amorim at Sporting CP but has been unable to replicate that form at United and has started just two Premier League games in 2025/26.

United may be willing to listen to offers for the Uruguay international but his stock is low and there’s not a long list of potential suitors, making a January move unlikely.

That leaves Mainoo, who fell out of favour following Amorim’s arrival and is yet to start a single Premier League game in 2025/26.

The England international wants regular first-team football in the second half of the season to try and get into Thomas Tuchel’s World Cup squad.

Despite his lack of gametime at Old Trafford, he is still regarded as one of the best young players in the Premier League and a number of clubs are looking to secure his signature.

A loan move in the January transfer window feels like the most likely outcome, although it may depend on United signing a replacement.

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